Auburn, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

702
FXUS66 KSEW 142250
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
250 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers will continue to taper off today across
western Washington before an upper ridge brings in a brief break
from the active weather on Friday. Cool and unsettled conditions
will return over the weekend and persist into early next week as
another wet system moves into western Washington. Upper level
ridging developing along the West Coast may bring drier conditions
and warming temperatures to the area towards the end of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...Shower activity will
gradually taper off tonight as an upper level trough axis slowly
pivots eastward. Friday will provide a brief break to wet
conditions as high pressure builds overhead. With a saturated
surface layer, patchy fog is likely to develop near the Puget
Sound early Friday morning. Cloudy skies will persist across
western Washington through the afternoon Friday with a few sun
breaks possible outside of isolated light shower activity.

Coastal flooding concerns continue on Friday, particularly along
the Pacific Coast where tidal forecasts show potential for minor
coastal flooding Friday morning and early afternoon. This may lead
to the flooding of shorelines and low-lying coastal areas. The
threat for coastal flooding along the Pacific Coast will continue
through the weekend with astronomical high tide levels approaching
minor flooding thresholds, and the potential for the inner coast
looks to be lower but continues to be monitored.

Another wet storm system will move into the region on Saturday,
bringing in more widespread precipitation and breezy winds. Snow
levels will rise above 5000-6000 ft throughout the day Saturday as
a warm front lifts across the region and brings in ample moisture.
Precipitation may start as snow over the Cascade Passes on
Saturday before quickly changing over to rain as snow levels
rapidly rise. A cold front will cross western Washington on
Sunday, maintaining precipitation and bringing snow levels back
down to as low as 2000 ft by Sunday evening. Snow over the
Cascades will pick up as the cold front passes the region, with
heavy snow at times and potential for significant snow
accumulation through the Cascade Passes, particularly Stevens Pass
northward.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Periods of moderate to
heavy precipitation will continue on Monday as another cold front
crosses the region. Snow levels may dip as low as 1500 ft, with
showers and breezy winds favored to continue into Tuesday.

Ensemble and deterministic forecast guidance continue to show good
agreement over warming and drying by next Wednesday, with
potential for a strong upper level ridge to build over the western
US. While uncertainty remains in its strength, this would
primarily shift the storm track to the north of the area and would
promote drier and warmer conditions for western Washington
heading into the second half of the week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft this evening as an upper-low churns
offshore. Flow aloft should then turn more northerly into the first
half of Friday as ridging takes hold. A mixed bag of flight rules
observed so far this afternoon. MVFR/IFR currently over terminals
where showers and a convergence zone are in place but VFR elsewhere.
Tonight, showers are to decrease but low-level moisture along with
relaxing winds will allow for MVFR cigs across much of the interior
of W WA by early Friday morning. Can`t rule out isolated instances
of IFR/LIFR as HREF guidance suggests a 30-40% chance of ceilings
below 1,000 ft for airfields such as KOLM and KPWT. Northerly winds
aloft should allow for a widespread return of VFR ceilings by Friday
afternoon.

KSEA...MVFR currently as VCSH have kept ceilings lower this
afternoon. The trend should continue tonight into Friday morning as
guidance has residual convergence drifting southward towards the
terminal as 925-850 winds turn northwesterly even has showers
decrease. VFR is slated to return by Friday afternoon as subsidence
produced by a building upper-ridge helps to scatter cloud coverage.
Light surface winds tonight and generally into the day tomorrow.

McMillian

&&

.MARINE...A surface trough has shift inland this afternoon with
onshore flow behind it. Ridging will build across the area late
tonight into Friday as conditions relax and remaining headlines
expire. A front looks to enter on Saturday with a round of
headlines. Here we could see widespread SCA winds along with
possible gales over the coastal waters. A secondary system coming
onshore on Sunday will keep advisory level winds going at least for
the coastal waters.  Surface ridging is expected to rebuild over the
waters on Monday then shift inland for a period of offshore flow.
Then, a stout low could bring strong winds to area waters on
Tuesday. Coastal seas are expected to finally dip below 10 feet
later Friday, but will build back into double digits Sunday through
Monday night.

McMillian

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Showers will gradually taper in coverage tonight into
tomorrow. Rivers are cresting and will begin to fall tonight into
tomorrow. The Skokomish River has begun to recede and could fall
below flood stage tomorrow into Saturday.

Another system will move into the region this weekend into early
Monday, bringing another round of more widespread precipitation to
the area. Snow levels will fluctuate quite rapidly, with snow levels
rising up to 5000-7000 ft Saturday then back down to 2000-4000 ft on
Sunday. Expect rises on area rivers, with the largest rises expected
on the north and central Cascade rivers. Currently no river flooding
is forecast outside of the Skokomish river, which may return to
minor flood stage by Sunday. Flooding potential will depend on
temperatures, QPF, and snow levels and will continue to be monitored
over the next few days.

62

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Bremerton
     and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest
     Interior-Tacoma Area.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM PST Friday for Central
     Coast-North Coast.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Monday evening
     for West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North
     Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central
     Cascades and Passes.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Grays Harbor Bar-
     West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Central
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PST Friday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$